The Great Acceleration towards a “Green Renaissance”: What is the role of open transformational science?

By Jean Claude Burgelman 
Director, Frontiers Planet Prize 

Intervention in the UNFCCC panel on ‘’Systems change and innovation for climate and sustainability action’’, Dubai, COP 2023 

Climate science and climate-associated risks, as reflected by real-world climate damage, show us that the only way to come close to holding the 1.5°C limit, is to cut global emissions by approximately 50% by 2030, and continue to cut emissions by 50% per decade, to reach a net-zero world economy by 2050-2060. On top of it, the world needs to protect and revive its carbon sinks - like the Amazon or the oceans – by safeguarding their biodiversity. The world also needs to rethink its agro-food system as one of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. In one sentence, the world needs to make sure to stay, or return to, operating within the 9 planetary boundaries to keep the Anthropocene healthy (Rockström and Owen, 2021).

What the global community is facing is therefore not an incremental adjustment or innovation to manage a certain problem – e.g., by lowering the ‘’planetary thermostat’’ to stay within 1.5°C. The world is actually facing nothing less than a complete systems change which requires a makeover, or re-engineering, of our way of life, including our economies, how we produce (including food), how we move, how we build, and how we create energy (Smil, 2021).

Gigantic as it is, it is not as exceptional as it might sound. In fact, humanity has achieved this before, 5 times already over the last 300 years in periods where our societies went through what Carlota Perez calls ‘’techno-economic paradigm shifts’’ (Perez, 2003).      

At the end of the 18th century came the first shift when our agricultural societies went through an Industrial Revolution; 60 years later came what Perez calls the ‘’age of railways, coal and the steam engine’’; this was followed, 55 years later, by the ‘’age of steel, electricity and heavy engineering’’, getting the world into the 20th century and into the ‘’age of oil, automobile, petrochemicals and mass production’’, leading into the 5th paradigm shift the ‘’age of IT’’, starting somewhere in the 1970s/80s.

These paradigm shifts were brought upon by groups of technological revolutions leading to new products and new (or renewed) industries capable of doing things better and differently than before and in doing so, propelling societies into a long-term upsurge of economic and social development.

I would argue that we are now in the upstart of a 6th techno-economic paradigm shift whereby a new renaissance - the “green renaissance” in how we do things at large, will lead to a healthy Anthropocene.

The COP 28 agreement concluded last month in December 2023 can be seen as the encouraging point of no return into this 6th shift. The ‘’beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era’’, as COP 28 is being labeled, has indeed to be the ‘’beginning of the roll out of a green renaissance’’.

Perez’ work teaches us that key to these techno-economic paradigm shifts are the following three elements: 

1. An attractive narrative, as Yuval Noah Harari demonstrates in his book “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind”, that can mobilize people and societies. The concept of a ‘’green renaissance’’, as I explain in my contribution to the Villars summit of 2023 offers this narrative. It signifies a rebirth and redesign of what we have achieved – as opposed to going back to the so-called ‘’good old green days’’ - into a way forward which is win-win for all, including nature. The first Renaissance marked the ending of the Middle Ages, but its outcome was a society of a higher social and moral order and a more widespread overall prosperity.
   
   The green renaissance indicates a dynamic way forward where all will benefit. It is a compelling narrative - a story that unifies and inspires. 
   

2. Having a sustained and clear policy guidance to create the right incentives for all stakeholders to transition. The European Green deal, the US Inflation Reduction Act, the Chinese 5 years plans on sustainability and indeed the just agreed COP 28 final conclusion, offer this guidance and should therefore be adhered to.
   The role of Planetary Boundary science in keeping this guidance on the right track is crucial. As one top negotiator told me in Dubai when I expressed my admiration for their courage: ‘’our policy simply follows the science, we have no other choice’’.
   

3. Finally, the advancement of societies hinges on evolving technologies and fresh perspectives, which inspire us to create new ways of carrying out tasks or even revolutionize existing methods. Whether it's manufacturing goods, generating energy, or producing food etc. It's widely acknowledged that the Stone Age didn't end due to a lack of stone, much like cars didn't replace horses because we depleted our horse population or enforced animal taxes. Instead, these transformative shifts happened because we discovered superior alternatives that enhanced mobility, ushering in the age of steam engines, followed by trains and automobiles. These inventions not only supplanted the prevalent system, but opened doors to previously unseen opportunities, initiating a monumental paradigm shift.
   
   Such systemic transformations have occurred five times throughout human history, revealing our ability to adapt and innovate.
   

4. Phasing out fossil fuels will therefore not happen because of running out of it. The latter won’t happen in the upcoming decades anyway. Phasing out will happen because new energy sources become more productive and in doing so offer an attractive green premium (Gates, 2021). This has already been demonstrated by solar energy and wind energy.

Accelerating this search for new ‘ways of doing things’ is at the heart of the transformational science we need for staying or returning to operating within the planetary boundaries. This is the core mission of the Frontiers Planet Prize (FPP).

With FPP, we want to significantly contribute to speeding up the green renaissance. And in doing so we hope to support the second great acceleration the planet needs to overcome the negative outcomes created by the previous great acceleration of the 20th century.

Why is an acceleration into a green renaissance needed? A ‘’normal’’ techno-economic paradigm cycle takes more or less 30 to 40 years to mature and runs for 60 or 70 years in total, after which a new one starts. Given that the green renaissance has started already with the explosion of renewables, we can assume that by 2040-2050 all will be in place to substitute the old way of doing things by greener technologies (the fact that over 70,000 people worldwide travelled to Dubai stands as strong evidence that the concept of a "green renaissance", regardless of how it may be labeled, has moved beyond niche discussions).

But there is scientific consensus that unfortunately the planet cannot wait for the normal dynamic of a system change cycle to unfold; hence the need to accelerate this cycle. This motive of ‘’we will get there, for sure, but will it be in time?’’ was echoed over and over by our speakers at the Frontiers Forum 2023 where the winners of the 1st edition of the Frontiers Planet Prize were announced.

To get there in time, we therefore have no other choice other than to accelerate the search for new ideas for the green renaissance.

How?

Here the answer is straightforward: by mobilizing the world of science to invest much more resources than what is currently being invested into transformational science (which is the mission of the FPP), and by making the results of this global scientific challenge, largely funded by public resources, available to a maximum number of people so that new ideas and findings can be picked up as soon as possible. In one sentence: by making the transformational science we need open to the whole world (whereas today most of it is still behind paywalls).

In the first renaissance, booksellers from Florence were sent all over the world to buy the knowledge available and bring them to Florence (King, 2021). In doing so, they created a ‘’hub’’ of new ideas and knowledge which ultimately led to the first Renaissance.

Today, facing the global challenge of creating a green renaissance towards a healthy planet, a hub alone will not do the job. We need to create an open “global brain” such that all knowledge travels in real time wherever needed to enable the green renaissance. For that to occur, we need to invest massively in open transformational science. Without it, we will most likely never make it.

References

1. Rockström, J., & Owen, G. Breaking Boundaries: The Science Behind our Planet. Dorling Kindersley Limited 2021.

2. Smil, V. Grand Transitions: How the Modern World Was Made. Oxford University Press 2021.

3. Perez, C. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. Edward Elgar Publishing 2003. 

4. Gates, B. How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need. Alfred A. Knopf 2021.

5. King, R. The Bookseller of Florence: The Story of the Manuscripts That Illuminated the Renaissance. Atlantic Monthly Press 2021.